Canadian Operational Research Society
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEMINAR
450 - 1 Street SW
(See attached map)
Dr. Kenneth Logan
Senior Supply Specialist, TransCanada Pipelines Limited
Developing a Gas Supply Model for Forecasting Future Canadian Gas Supply
The purpose of this seminar is to describe a mathematical and computer model that has been developed by TransCanada for TransCanada Pipelines (TCPL) and for the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) for future Canadian natural gas resource assessment work. It was developed in the contexts of developing a gas supply model for forecasting future Canadian gas supply for TCPL and of improving the CGPC’s assessment methodologies and software.
The model integrates two discovery process models used by the CGPC and solves the economic truncation problem for semi-mature to mature plays. It is based on applying techniques developed by G. M. Kaufman and J. D. Fuller and colleagues in new ways, which extends the work of these authors.
This model has a number of important advantages including: fast computational speed; integration of parametric and nonparametric statistical approaches; integration of the Kaufman model, the Arps-Roberts Model, and others; overcoming a PETRIMES limitation of a maximum of 1000 samples; providing a finding rate forecast for economic analysis; and providing a fresh look at solving the economic truncation problem.
The details of the new Modified Arps-Roberts Model (now known as the Truncated Discovery Process Model or TDPM for short) are discussed.
About the Speaker:
Dr. Kenneth Logan obtained his Ph.D. degree in probability from Cornell University, followed by 8 years at Shell Canada as a senior geophysicist and engineering software team leader, then 7 years at BP Canada Ltd. (now Talisman) as an Oil Sands reservoir engineer and engineering software team leader. Ken has been at NOVA/TCPL for 15 and a half years in the area of forecasting of Canadian gas supply. Ken, with the help of Bob Meneley, developed the statistical software model, TDPM, for TransCanada and the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC). TDPM was used in CGPC's 2005 Canadian resource assessment.